Will Bitcoin Price History Repeat This Christmas?
- Analysis of Bitcoin price history over the past decade shows a clear trend of prices peaking around Christmas time
- Some Bitcoin price prediction forecasts suggest that Bitcoin may peak at $12,000 – $13,000 this Christmas
- While hopeful of a bull run, other predictions indicate that a Bitcoin price Christmas bonanza isn’t a viable possibility
What’s Your Christmas Bitcoin Price Prediction?
2018 has been an extraordinarily turbulent year for Bitcoin. Almost all price gains realized in 2017, have been lost to pull-back after pull-back. However, Bitcoin price history suggests that the Bitcoin price may double in time for 2019.
Why Does the Bitcoin Price Rebound at Christmas?
During the Christmas period of 2015, the Bitcoin price soared by upwards of 25% in value. Having languished at $250 – $300 for much of the year, prices by the end of December were well above $400. The same pattern repeated around Christmas time 2016. This time, median coin prices for the year increased almost 50%, resulting in Bitcoin starting 2017 priced at over $900.
More recently, Bitcoin surged exponentially in value over Christmas 2017. As for why this pattern seems to persist over time, there are several reasons.
- The Christmas period traditionally sees a stock market boom as stocks in consumer goods increase in value. While it shouldn’t, this positive sentiment seems to carry Bitcoin on its coattails
- Consumer investors traditionally have more free time and liquidity during the holiday season
- Bitcoin receives more media attention when prices rise, leading to broader public awareness and entry of more investors into the market
Bitcoin Price History may Not Repeat Over the 2018 Holidays
It is nice to hope that Bitcoin might rebound spectacularly in time for 2019. However, the holiday period this year will be very different to previous years.
- Most banks now prohibit customers from using credit cards to make Bitcoin purchases online
- The Bitcoin price is now too prohibitive for most new to market consumer investors
- Pull-backs from $20,000 in January 2018, left many investors who entered the market over Christmas 2018, counting significant losses
Given the above, consumer investors are going to be more cautious and find it much more difficult to practically invest in Bitcoin in the run-up to 2019.
Institutional Investment Could Shore up Bitcoin Prices
It is doubtful that as many consumer investors will enter the cryptocurrency market as in previous years. However, a Christmas Bitcoin price boom could be driven by institutional investor attention.
- Exchange traded funds which allow people to buy and trade Bitcoin like stocks may become a reality before Christmas
- Bakkt LLC will soon make it possible for institutional investors to purchase Bitcoin backed futures contracts
- Bitcoin is widely accepted to have bottomed at $6,000. In this case, more institutional investors may now attempt to buy in early, before a renewed cryptocurrency market bull run in 2019
Will we Have a Merry Bitcoin Christmas This Year?
In consideration of all of the above, there is at best a 50/50 chance that the Bitcoin prices will enjoy a significant festive increase. The good news is that because Bitcoin has bottomed, it is likely only a matter of time before markets start gaining momentum again in 2019.